There is speculation about EL Nino that it can significantly affect the monsoon. Will it create a stir in the economy?
After 2015-16, the ‘El Niño’ phenomenon is again approaching, causing concern in India and around the world. Yes, if you remember, seven years back, El Niño was the one who created a stir in the country, but very few were aware of it.
We are referring to El Niño, which originates from a Spanish term meaning ‘little boy’. However, this little boy has become a significant issue for India and the world.
But the question is, how does it affect us?
It is widely believed that El Niño could result in a staggering economic loss of $3 trillion globally in 2023-24. India and its economy will not be exempt from El Niño’s impact. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how it will affect India’s economy.
What is the Deal with El Niño?
El Niño is a weather-related process. It happens when the surface waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. This is called El Niño. During El Niño, the prevailing east-to-west winds in the Pacific Ocean weaken or reverse direction. This promotes warm water, which usually flows back east into the western Pacific. This changes the atmosphere’s temperature and pressure patterns, weakening the monsoon over the Indian subcontinent. Because cold winds benefit monsoons, not hot ones, El Niño means less rain, increased temperatures, and an increased risk of floods and droughts. There is a significant effect of El Niño on the monsoon of India, which is important for the agriculture and economy of the country.
How Can El Niño Affect the Indian Economy?
Regarding El Niño of 2023-24, IMD estimates that it will affect the monsoon of June, July and August by 70%. Roxy Mathew Cole, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), told Hindustan Times that El Niño means delayed onset and less rainfall during the current monsoon season. Forecasts by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) already indicate drought conditions in northwest and central India.
We all know India is an agricultural country and how important the monsoon is for agriculture. The effect of monsoon affects not only agriculture but also a lot of other sectors. This affects the entire economy.
If we talk about the year 2009 itself, India had to import a large amount of sugar due to inadequate rains. Hence the prices increased globally. Where the prices of cereals, dairy and pulses have increased in recent months despite good rains for four consecutive years, guess what will happen due to fewer rains or drought?
What Do the Figures Say?
However, until now, we have seen what most experts say, but once we look at the figures of the past. Because El Niño keeps coming back again and again in 2-7 years.
Looking at the figures, it seems that the Indian economy has fought strongly against El Niño. And the lack of monsoon means other things besides El Niño.
This year’s El Niño is said to be strong, and the interesting thing is that in 2009, a weak El Niño was observed when there was 78.2% less rainfall. In 1997, there was a strong El Niño where India received 102% of normal rainfall. This time El Niño is strong again, so instead of less, might there be a flood problem?
What’s Next?
While it is true that the actual impact of El Niño on weather conditions such as rainfall and floods can only be determined by observing the weather patterns, let’s see what happens next!
That’s it for today. We hope you’ve found this article informative. Remember to spread the word among your friends. Until we meet again, stay curious!
*The article is for information purposes only. This is not an investment advice.
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