After the Ukraine war, the global energy market witnessed a major shift, with India emerging as an important part of this changing equation. Amid sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia, India significantly increased its imports of Russian crude oil. According to recent reports, since the start of the war, India has imported oil worth nearly €144 billion from Russia. This figure not only reflects India’s energy strategy but also highlights global geopolitical dynamics, trade pressures, and growing investor concerns.
Let’s examine this in detail and understand its impact on investors.
What’s Happening?
Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, India has imported crude oil worth around €144 billion from Russia. According to a European think tank, from February 2022 onwards, Russia has earned nearly €1 trillion from global oil sales.
As per CREA, India has been the second-largest buyer of Russian oil after China. During this period, China purchased fossil fuels worth €293.7 billion from Russia, including oil, coal, and gas. India, on the other hand, bought fossil fuels worth €162.5 billion, comprising €143.88 billion of oil and €18.18 billion of coal.
Meanwhile, the European Union also imported fossil fuels worth €218.1 billion from Russia, including oil, gas, and coal. These figures show that despite global sanctions, Russia’s energy exports have continued on a large scale.
Indian Refiners and U.S. Pressure
India continues to face pressure from the United States over its imports of Russian crude oil. Despite this, state-owned refiners (PSUs) have continued their purchases. In August, the U.S. imposed a 25% secondary tariff on Indian goods, citing Russia-related oil imports. Towards the end of November, sanctions were also imposed on Lukoil and Rosneft.
According to CNBC TV18, the decline seen in India’s overall demand for Russian oil in December was largely due to reduced purchases by Reliance Industries. Analysts noted that this drop was partly offset by public sector undertakings (PSUs). State-owned companies such as IOC and BPCL continue to buy Russian crude oil.
India–Russia Oil Trade
After the Ukraine war, India, now the world’s third-largest oil importer, emerged as the biggest buyer of discounted Russian crude oil. Due to Western sanctions and falling European demand, Russia’s share in India’s oil imports rose from less than 1% to nearly 40%. Before November 2025, this share stood at around 35%.
However, after the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s share in India’s oil imports fell to below 25%. According to CREA, India’s daily purchases of Russian oil in early January were around €72.92 million, sharply lower than €130.49 million at the end of November and the €189.07 million peak recorded in July 2023.
What Does This Mean for Investors?
Shares of Reliance Industries fell 4.4% on January 6, 2025, marking the sharpest decline since June 4, 2024. The fall came after the company clarified that it does not expect to buy Russian crude oil in January. Reliance said on social media platform X that its Jamnagar refinery had not received any Russian oil cargo for the past three weeks and does not expect deliveries this month either.
Since 2022, Reliance has been the largest buyer of discounted Russian oil, supported by its advanced refining capabilities, which allow it to process a wide range of crude grades. However, the reduction in Russian oil intake could put pressure on private refiners’ margins, especially those dependent on discounted crude.
In contrast, PSU refiners such as IOC and BPCL appear relatively stable, as they continue limited purchases from non-sanctioned suppliers. For investors, this highlights that company-specific strategies and supply sourcing will play a key role in shaping energy sector stock performance.
What’s Next?
Uncertainty around the India–Russia oil trade may increase further in the coming months. According to Kpler data, in December, India’s imports of Russian crude fell by 595 thousand barrels per day (kbpd) MoM to 1.24 million barrels per day (mbpd), the lowest level since December 2022. This decline suggests that India’s procurement strategy is already shifting.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that the United States could raise tariffs on Indian products if New Delhi fails to further curb purchases of Russian oil. This adds additional pressure on India’s energy policy and refining decisions. Going forward, balancing cheap oil, energy security, and global diplomatic pressure will be India’s biggest challenge, and this balance will ultimately shape the direction of oil companies and investor sentiment.
*The companies mentioned in the article are for information purposes only. This is not investment advice.
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