In the Indian stock market, Diwali is not just a festival, it also marks a new beginning. It signifies the start of a new Samvat year, and investors often expect a wave of positive sentiment around this time. This optimistic atmosphere frequently sparks discussions about the ‘Diwali Rally’ or ‘Samvat Rally’. But the real question remains, is this rally merely a few days of festive excitement, or does it lay the foundation for long-term wealth creation? The answer lies not in speculation, but in data.
In this article, we will analyse comprehensive data to understand post-Diwali market trends, sectoral performance, and the behaviour of various asset classes during this period.
Samvat 2080 Analysis
Samvat 2080, which ended on November 1, 2024, turned out to be an exceptionally rewarding year for investors. During this period, the market witnessed a strong uptrend, with major indices delivering impressive returns. The Sensex rose by 22.2%, while the Nifty50 delivered an outstanding 24.5% return, reflecting strong bullish sentiment in the market.
Additionally, the BSE Midcap Index surged 41.2%, and the BSE Smallcap Index delivered a remarkable 43.3% return. This shows that in Samvat 2080, investor confidence was not limited to large-cap companies; small and mid-sized firms also gained strong traction.
Moreover, metals moved in tandem with equities, delivering solid performance. Gold prices rose 29.7%, while silver delivered 32.8% returns. Overall, Samvat 2080 was a year in which almost every asset class rewarded investors handsomely.
Samvat 2081 Analysis
After the stellar rally of Samvat 2080, Samvat 2081 showed a notable shift in market momentum. As of October 20, 2025, returns from major indices have been rather modest. The Sensex rose only 5.8%, while the Nifty50 gained 6.3%, a slowdown compared to the over 20% returns seen last year.
This sluggishness was also visible in the midcap and small-cap segments. The BSE Midcap Index remained almost flat, returning just 0.9%, while the BSE Smallcap Index recorded a 4.1% decline. This stands in stark contrast to the over 40% returns of Samvat 2080 and highlights the rise in market volatility.
However, amid this lacklustre equity performance, precious metals delivered exceptional gains. Gold prices surged 62.2%, and silver jumped an astonishing 82.7%. This trend suggests that during Samvat 2081, investors moved their money out of equities and into traditionally safer assets such as gold and silver, often a sign of growing economic uncertainty.
Sectoral Performance: Gainers and Losers
When examining sectoral performance during the Samvat year, the market reveals a highly uneven picture. Some sectors delivered double-digit returns, while others faced steep losses. The PSU Bank index rose 15.92%, while the Nifty Financial Services Index gained 14.86%. The Nifty Bank advanced 12.31%, and Private Banks delivered 12.15%, all showing strong performance. Moreover, the Auto sector also sparkled with 14.20% returns, while the Consumption sector posted a healthy 9.25% return.
On the other hand, several key sectors remained under pressure. The Media sector was the worst hit, plunging 24.39%. The IT sector also witnessed a sharp decline of 18.63%. In addition, traditionally defensive sectors such as Energy, Realty, FMCG, and Pharma also delivered negative returns. This sectoral performance clearly indicates that during Samvat 2081, the market’s rally was confined to only a few select sectors, while the broader market remained weak.
What Does It Mean for Investors?
The data shows that the market is dynamic, and no two Samvat years are the same. While Samvat 2080 showcased broad-based and robust growth, Samvat 2081 reflected slower momentum, sectoral rotation, and a significant shift toward precious metals. The choice between a ‘short-term rally’ and ‘long-term gains’ largely depends on prevailing market conditions.
The key takeaway for investors is that relying solely on the ‘Diwali rally’ sentiment is not enough. A successful investment strategy should involve diversification across different asset classes such as equities, gold, silver, and various sectors, as this approach helps significantly reduce overall risk.
Post-Diwali Rally: Short-Term Pop or Long-Term Gain?
There is no single definitive answer, as data from the past five years shows that the market’s post-Diwali trend has varied from year to year. For instance, in CY2020 and CY2023, the Nifty surged by 6.06% and 7.07%, respectively, within just one month after Diwali. However, in CY2021 and CY2024, it declined by 4.01% and 0.11%, respectively. Similarly, on a six-month basis, CY2020 and CY2023 delivered strong returns of 14.84% and 12.96%, while CY2021 saw a decline of 6.92%.
This clearly indicates that there is no fixed pattern in the post-Diwali rally, and its impact depends largely on sectoral performance and market sentiment. This year, the financial and auto sectors performed well, whereas IT and media lagged. Meanwhile, assets like gold and silver once again proved that diversification and patience tend to yield better long-term results.
In conclusion, the post-Diwali rally is neither just a short-term pop nor a guaranteed long-term gain. Rather, it is an opportunity for investors who can identify the right sectors, stay diversified, and remain patient.
*The article is for information purposes only. This is not investment advice.
*Disclaimer: Teji Mandi Disclaimer
