India is entering a crucial phase in its economic journey, where export growth is being shaped not only by traditional industries but also by rising digital-first exporters and stronger global trade linkages.
According to the Economic Survey 2025–26, India’s external performance has shown notable resilience despite global disruptions. The Government of India and industry stakeholders are working closely to achieve the ambitious $2 trillion export target. The Commerce Minister has also urged businesses to raise quality standards swiftly to move closer to this milestone.
Let us understand India’s export momentum, the documentation challenges that accompany it, and the global uncertainties involved, and assess whether this theme could emerge as a meaningful investment opportunity.
What’s Happening?
India’s $2 trillion export ambition faces hurdles due to extensive paperwork and complex compliance requirements. After becoming the world’s fourth-largest economy, India has set a target of achieving $2 trillion in exports by 2030, reflecting growing confidence in its trade capabilities.
To reach this goal, merchandise exports would need to grow at a CAGR of around 11–12%, while services exports would require an annual CAGR of 18–19%. India has recently signed free trade agreements (FTAs) with the UK and the European Union, and the final draft of a trade agreement with the US is reportedly close to completion. These developments could accelerate export growth, but procedural bottlenecks and documentation burdens remain significant challenges.
US Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty
According to The Economic Times, Indian exporters are currently subject to a temporary 10% tariff on shipments to the US for 150 days, effective from February 24. This development follows a major Supreme Court ruling in which the Trump administration’s sweeping 25% tariff was struck down on the grounds that emergency powers could not be applied in that manner. Shortly thereafter, US President Trump imposed a fresh 10% tariff on all countries on February 21 and indicated that it could be raised to 15% in the future, prolonging uncertainty for exporters.
Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, has stated that under the present order, Indian goods will attract a 10% tariff, but there remains significant ambiguity regarding the proposed 15% rate. Importantly, this 10% levy is in addition to the existing Most Favoured Nation (MFN) duty applicable in the US.
For instance, a product that earlier attracted a 5% MFN duty would now face an effective duty of 15%. Under the earlier regime, the total duty in some cases had reached 30%. India and the US had earlier agreed on a framework to reduce tariffs to 18%, under which the punitive 25% component was removed, though other duties remain. A meeting scheduled in Washington from February 23 to 26, 2026, to discuss the legal text of this agreement has since been postponed.
Sharad Kumar Saraf, Founder, Chairman of Technocraft Industries India, has clearly stated that the US is a major market for India and there is an urgent need to end this tariff uncertainty as soon as possible. Meanwhile, Aqeel Panaruna, Chairman of Florence Shoe Company, believes that tariff stability is especially important for labour-intensive sectors such as the footwear and leather industry.
What Does This Mean for Investors?
India’s expanding export base and diversified trade relationships continue to create opportunities for investors. With the revised 10% US tariff now in place, shipments in sectors such as seafood, leather, and footwear are expected to improve. According to The Economic Times, Yogesh Gupta, MD of Megaa Moda, believes that the tariff revision could support higher shipments to the US, potentially aiding margins in these industries.
In the current global environment, reliability of service, workforce stability, and long-term supplier relationships have become decisive factors in sourcing decisions. Several global brands in the US and Europe are increasingly turning to Indian suppliers to reduce supply chain risks. This shift strengthens the case for investing in sectors supported by India’s labour availability and scalable manufacturing capacity. Additionally, the reported 51.2% growth in telecom instruments highlights emerging potential within India’s electronics segment.
What’s Next?
Going forward, India’s $2 trillion export ambition will extend beyond traditional goods and depend significantly on digital infrastructure, high-value services, and advanced manufacturing. Finalising trade agreements with the US and other developed economies to reduce tariff-related uncertainty will be an important step.
There is also a clear need for streamlined approvals and simplified compliance processes to support digital-first exporters, enabling them to compete globally without excessive administrative burdens.
If India strengthens quality standards and simplifies trade procedures, it could position itself as a more integral part of global supply chains. Investors who identify these structural shifts early and allocate capital thoughtfully across relevant sectors may benefit over the long term, provided decisions are supported by thorough research and prudent risk assessment.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. The companies mentioned are cited as examples within the context of market developments. Investors are advised to conduct their own due diligence and consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all related documents carefully before investing.
