Crude oil, which had been trading steadily near a five-month low, has suddenly grabbed global attention after a sharp turnaround. Since the beginning of his second term, US President Donald Trump has been pressuring India and other major economies to halt Russian oil imports or face additional tariffs. Recently, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Russia’s key oil suppliers, a move that has prompted both India and China to reassess their crude oil sourcing strategies.
This visual guide breaks down the entire scenario and explores which sectors stand to lose or gain from the latest developments in global oil markets.
What’s Next?
India’s oil demand is expected to rise sharply, making it the biggest global driver by 2030. Crude imports may increase from 5.64 to nearly 6.66 million barrels per day as domestic output remains stagnant. To manage this, India is diversifying its supplier base by boosting imports from the US, Brazil, and West Africa while reducing reliance on Russian oil.
The country is also expanding its refining capacity, from 258 to 667 million tonnes annually by 2040, to meet rising demand and enhance exports. Exploration in new areas like the Andaman Sea continues, though results have been limited so far. Refiners are also awaiting government and banking guidance as payments tied to sanctioned entities face processing risks.
Analysts expect crude prices to remain in the $60–$70 per barrel range in 2025, with the potential for spikes if global tensions rise or OPEC+ decides to cut production.
*The companies mentioned in the article are for information purposes only. This is not investment advice.
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